Will the pandemic and politics push Chinese students away from studying overseas in 2022? Throughout 2021, we read news stories about Chinese student numbers in many countries and schools steadily rebounding from a 2020 low point, alongside other stories questioning whether the number of Chinese international students will slowly dwindle in the coming years. With this ambiguity in mind, it’s worth asking: what do Chinese enrollment trends from 2021 tell us about what to expect in 2022 and beyond? Data from individual countries suggest that Chinese students are continuing to study overseas and steadily rebounding back to 2019 levels, while the push factors that motivate students to leave China remain firmly entrenched in the Chinese education system.

The Reporting Haze and Push Factors

Projecting study destination preferences among Chinese students has long been a mix of sorcery and data science; different countries use different reporting periods and definitions of international students, while Chinese authorities and intergovernmental bodies haven’t tracked students’ intended study destinations in a systematic way. When comparing figures, it’s also important to keep in mind that, while some countries’ travel and visa barriers are continuing to affect application and enrollment statistics, these restrictions are largely gone for the US.

China’s national university entrance examination, the gaokao, also shapes the higher education landscape in China and contributes to some students’ dissatisfaction with domestic education options. While top-ranked C-9 League universities have begun to gain worldwide recognition, admission to them is still governed by an exam that largely benefits wealthier urban citizens with better access to more resources. While measures to decrease the urban-rural divide in both the quality of education as well as equity in opportunity have made the gaokao a bit more competitive, China’s household registration, or hukou, system continues to hamper the prospects of rural students; recent data indicate that the percentage of rural students at China’s most prestigious universities has actually shrunk to 0.3%, compared to 2.8% for urban students. Because of the hukou system, the children of economic migrants in larger cities are unable to attend local schools; they are therefore forced to either pay to attend lackluster private schools or simply return to their families’ home regions to receive a free but often bare-bones education there.

A student prepares for the *gaokao* in Zhangjiakou (China Daily/SIPA)

It is also important to consider the concerns that many Chinese parents and students have over the quality of domestic universities in China. While institutions such as Tsinghua and Peking University have acquired international renown, the drop off between the C-9 League and lower-ranked, “tier-2” universities is significant, despite efforts to address issues in curricula and instruction. Due to the intense pressure of the gaokao, many students, now relieved of the stresses of the exam, suffer from a lack of motivation upon matriculation. Others have noted the lack of engagement from faculty, who are often content to simply let students graduate; as student feedback often takes a backseat to departmental politics and Party activity in tenure and promotion, there is little incentive for faculty to encourage interaction or discussion in class. China’s highly competitive job market is also a factor, as many undergraduates feel pessimistic about their employment prospects after graduation.

Naturally, parents also play a significant role in their students’ decision of whether to study overseas. According to a recent study from the British Council about higher education in China, “almost a 10th of parents of school-age children said that they definitely wanted their child to study abroad, with more than half saying that they were at least seriously considering this option”. Moreover, as the Chinese middle class grows, interest in international education is rising along with it; as we discussed in an article last summer, the British Council survey shows that income correlates very well with interest in study abroad: about 65% of households earning more than 20,000 RMB per month indicated that they wanted to study overseas. As the middle and upper classes grow in China, the population of people with the means to study overseas expands. Therefore, the long-term trajectory of Chinese students going overseas is still positive, poised for a gradual recovery as the world emerges from the pandemic in the short term and positioned for steady, incremental growth as incomes rise and push factors in China remain in the long term.

Income and interest in study abroad among Chinese households (from British Council survey)

Amid Uncertainty, Students Are Applying to Multiple Countries

While there is reason to expect that interest in study overseas will remain strong, Chinese families are increasingly aware of the choices they have for study destinations. Amid the uncertain global travel and visa environment, more students appear to be applying to universities in multiple countries. A recent survey of about 8,000 Chinese students indicates that 30% of Chinese students intend to increase the number of countries to which they are applying to compensate for the risk presented by the ongoing pandemic. Our own research presents an even more compelling picture; in an interview we conducted with Francis Miller, Director of College Counseling at Xi’an Tie’yi High School, about 60% of his students planned to apply to universities in more than one country, which matches similar commentary from two other admissions consultants with whom we spoke.

Enrollment Across Anglophone Countries, and Reasons for Optimism in the US

In 2019, there were 703,500 Chinese students studying overseas, up 300% over the past decade, but the Chinese Ministry of Education, which typically reports this total figure, hasn’t released an updated figure since 2019. Instead, it’s necessary to examine individual country data from 2021 to infer what to expect in 2022.

Throughout the course of the pandemic, the UK has seen a noticeable uptick in the number of applications and enrollments among Chinese students, and survey data suggests that much of the interest in the UK has correlated with a drop from the US. Despite these gains, however, there is ample reason to believe that the US can bounce back as a preferred study destination. US colleges and universities who take proactive steps to capitalize on the Chinese appetite for international study could position themselves well for increased enrollment.

Over the past four years, the US’ status as the top study abroad destination in China has indeed eroded, particularly compared to the UK. Trump-era diplomatic tensions, concerns about gun violence and AAPI racism, uncertainty in the visa process, and perceptions of America’s poor handling of the pandemic have hampered continued American dominance in the study overseas market. The UK has emerged as the chief competitor to US education brands in China, with several surveys suggesting that more Chinese students and families rate the UK as a more preferred study destination than the US. In a 2021 New Oriental survey of 7,982 people, beginning in 2019, more students listed the UK as a preferred study destination than the US; this trend accelerated in 2021, with 44% expressing a preference for the UK, compared to 32% for the US. Similar surveys done by XDF, the British Council, EIC, and BOSSA suggest a narrowing of preferences, with the UK coming out 5%, 5%, 5.3%, and 1% ahead of the US, respectively.

Some commentators, such as Grady McGregor of Fortune, have pointed out that, owing to the rise of nationalist rhetoric in the US over the past several years, as well as to anti-Asian sentiment, restrictions on international travel, and university closures brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese parents have become “less motivated to send students abroad.” These concerns underscore the more general emphasis that Chinese students and parents have begun to place on safety when considering overseas study destinations; indeed, according to a survey that Sunrise conducted among Chinese high school students in 2021, around one-third of students indicated safety as either their first or second most important factor when deciding on which international institution to attend. In addition to the uptick in gun violence in the US over the past year, the racial justice protests of 2020 have cast a light on the impact of racial discrimination in US society. Indeed, as Stop AAPI Hate reports, 6,600 anti-Asian hate crimes and incidents of violence or discrimination occurred between March 2020 and March 2021.

Protesters in New York City attending a 2021 demonstration against anti-Asian rhetoric and bigotry (Spencer Platt/Getty Images/Vox)

That said, the US is on track to chart a modest recovery in 2022 from the low point of the 2020-2021 cycle. Previously, the US saw a modest drop of 9% in new international student enrollments in the 2020-2021 cycle, while Chinese student numbers dropped more sharply by 14.8%, according to the IIE’s Open Doors report. CommonApp data suggested a 9% overall uptick in applications to US institutions by international students, and an 18% decline among applications from China. On the other hand, visa issuance is going up. Since May, for example, 85,000 students from China received F-1 student visas, according to the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, representing an increase over 2019. Moreover, according to their most recent deadline update published this January, CommonApp data, which skew toward undergraduates, illustrate that China remains one of the top five senders of international students to the United States (alongside India, Pakistan, Canada, and Nigeria).

Moreover, the effect of these sentiments on enrollments in the US hasn’t been completely uniform; universities in the top 100 and in major cities have fared better, while universities in the Midwest have been more exposed to these changes. Ohio State University, for example, noted a 16.8% drop from fall 2019 to fall 2020, with another 8.2% dip the following year; meanwhile, Michigan State University posted a year-over-year decrease of 7% between 2016-2019, followed by a 25% downturn in 2020.

This increase in enrollments in the UK is tempered by the sharp reduction in applications from EU member states post-Brexit. In part because the UK (excluding Northern Ireland) now imposes higher international fees on EU students, applications from EU countries have dropped by a startling 43%. To fill this vacuum of interest, British universities have been forced to look elsewhere for international student engagement. While the rising interest among Chinese students in the UK as a study destination is notable, then, the changes in the international student landscape within the UK brought about by Brexit have, to a certain extent, exaggerated the picture.

It’s also important to consider the potential impact of Hong Kongers seeking educational opportunities in the UK. According to official statistics cited by the South China Morning Post, applications among Hong Kong students to UK universities surged in 2021; the latest figures from the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) indicate a year-over-year increase of over 9% among Hong Kong applicants. As a result of the controversy regarding Hong Kong’s national security law, many Hong Kongers with British National (Overseas) passports have opted to pursue an education in the UK, with the UK government enacting policies in 2021 to ease the process for such Hong Kong residents. This increase in interest among Hong Kong students, coupled with UK policy granting them a degree of preferred status, may eventually lead to a crowding out effect; Mainland Chinese students who find themselves competing for fewer spots in UK’s best institutions may turn to other Anglophone countries with more opportunities for enrollment as a result.

Other countries have experienced setbacks of their own. Closed borders and rancorous diplomatic relations with Australia have led to a decline in Chinese enrollment in Australian universities. New Zealand’s closed borders and pre-pandemic visa clampdown have hobbled its universities in China. Instability and curbs on academic freedom in Hong Kong have affected its universities. Mixed vaccination rates and public health measures in countries in other parts of Europe, South Asia, and Southeast Asia have slowed Chinese enrollments in emerging study destinations. South Korea, Singapore, and Japan appear to be the only destinations holding fairly steady.

On that note, it’s worth noting that the growth of Chinese student enrollment in institutions in the UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand is also inherently constrained by capacity. While U.S. News, for example, included 1,452 institutions in its 2021 rankings of regionally-accredited, four-year colleges and universities in the US, the UK, in second place, boasts only about 175, with Canada, Australia, and New Zealand trailing at 97, 43, and 8, respectively. While not every one of those 1,400 colleges and universities is able to recruit and enroll international students, this difference in capacity is stark. Moreover, our survey indicated that Chinese students from second- and third-tier cities placed greater importance on program rather than overall institutional ranking; this preference casts a much wider net that gives the US, with its higher number of choices, a more competitive edge over other Anglophone countries.

In addition to overall enrollment figures, it is important to consider new enrollments as well, as these data capture specifically those students whose academic plans have been most affected by recent events. In their 2021 report, Student, Interrupted: International Education and the Pandemic, the Mitchell Institute for Education and Health Policy at Victoria University has highlighted the changes in new Chinese student enrollment by country year over year from 2018/19 to 2020/21:

Australia - Total Chinese enrollment in higher education has fallen only 7% despite the country’s borders being closed since March 2020. That said, Australia experienced a nearly 40% drop in new Chinese student enrollment from 2019/20 through September 2021. This figure fits into the overall trend of year-over-year decline of new Chinese students in Australian universities from 2018/19 through 2020/21.

Canada - Like Australia, Canada has seen its new Chinese student enrollment figures decline, though not nearly as precipitously: 13% from 2019/20 to 2020/21, and 41% overall since 2018/19.

New Zealand - New Chinese student enrollment in New Zealand universities did not even exceed 1,000 in 2020/21, representing a nearly 80% decrease from 2019/20 and 92% decrease from 2018/19.

UK - The UK has fared better than most, seeing a 48% increase in new Chinese student enrollment from 2019/20 through 2020/21. Nevertheless, new enrollment is still 2% lower than in 2018/19. This year the number of Chinese applying to start undergraduate courses rose again, by 17%. Global Times reported last year that about 216,000 Chinese students were studying in the UK overall, an increase over the approximately 140,000 there during 2019/20.
US - Contrary to the doom and gloom that some data suggest, new Chinese student enrollment in institutions of higher education in the US increased almost fivefold from 2019/20 to 2020/21. While still down 12% from 2018/19, as we discussed above, various data points present a fairly rosy outlook.

Should the US and US institutions take proactive steps to address some of the concerns we’ve detailed above, they will likely remain a top destination for Chinese students looking to attend university abroad. In addition to state action, individual institutions can and should build out their capacity for engagement with the Chinese student market. Establishing a localized digital marketing presence is essential to capturing the attention of tech-savvy Chinese Gen Zers. This includes not only building a locally-hosted Chinese website, but also engaging with the various social media platforms that attract millions of Chinese users on a daily basis. And especially considering China’s tight border restrictions, having a dedicated in-country representative to attend recruitment events and perform outreach on your behalf can be a valuable asset. Sunrise can help project the authentic voice of your college or university to Chinese students hoping to acquire undergraduate or graduate experience abroad.

Apocalypse Never: Why Chinese Students Will Continue to Study Overseas in 2022 (And Where They’re Choosing to Go)