The Omicron Variant and its Impact (So Far) on International Study

On November 24th, South African authorities reported the first documented case of the omicron variant of COVID-19. While scientists race to understand its origins, virulence, and lethality, many governments have taken measures to restrict incoming travel. It’s hard to predict its effect on international student mobility until we have scientific consensus on the threat posed by omicron, but current indicators suggest that it will prolong the status quo for universities recruiting in China. Students will still be free to leave China to study in countries like the US, Canada, and the UK, where travel from China is permitted, but travel to China for recruitment activities will remain difficult due to the difficulties of getting a visa and quarantining for 2-3 weeks. At least until the end of the 2022 Winter Olympics, we expect no major shift to Chinese student mobility and travel to China. At least until next March, we seem headed toward another few months of digital marketing in China, with physical recruitment events being open only to schools with in-country representatives.

Travelers view flight cancellations at O.R. Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg, South Africa. Phill Magakoe/AFP

After a gradual easing of restrictions for international student travel, omicron has prompted a bit of a double-take by certain governments; the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, for example, has noted that Australia has deferred the arrival of fully vaccinated international students until December 15, and China has responded by warning its students to take precautions when visiting. That said, as President Biden remarked last week, while the variant is indeed a “cause for concern,” the US currently has no plans to reimpose lockdowns as it did at the beginning of the pandemic. As of this writing, there is no reason to believe that international students will be indefinitely suspended from entry into the US.

In fact, despite the hesitation of some commentators regarding the future of Chinese enrollment in US institutions, recent data indicate that interest among Chinese students has not waned, and that applications are actually starting to return to pre-pandemic levels. As the Global Times has noted, Chinese students' demand for overseas education has not fundamentally changed; since May, for example, 85,000 students from China received F-1 student visas, according to the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, representing an increase over 2019.

Conversely, China’s response has been to double down on its current zero-tolerance COVID policy; speaking to the South China Morning Post, Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), remarked that China would take a wait-and-see approach, adding that, “for China, the zero-tolerance policy and prevention of overseas importation are the easiest and most effective ways to control the outbreak.” Unlike the US, China has not developed a level of tolerance for new infections, and as such has been reluctant to lift its travel restrictions. One of the primary barriers to recruitment in the Chinese market, then, is travel to and within China.

Aly Song/Reuters

The situation is, of course, still ongoing, and with so many variables to take into consideration (just how transmissible is it? how lethal is it compared to the delta variant? how effective will our current vaccines be against it?), there is a great degree of uncertainty regarding its potential effects on public health, global supply chains, and other areas touched by the pandemic. Stéphane Bancel, CEO of Moderna, recently cautioned that our current vaccines may not be as effective against the new variant due to its genetic mutations. On the other hand, Tai Hui, JPMorgan Asset Management’s Asia chief market strategist, has speculated that the financial risks posed by the omicron variant will be a “bump in the road to recovery,” rather than a “derail[ment].”

As we approach 2022, we may begin to gain some clarity on what omicron is, what it isn’t, and how we can apply the lessons over the past year to address its potential impacts. Nevertheless, the threat of travel restrictions (or, in the case of China, the certainty of them) makes it necessary to consider alternative solutions to connecting with international students hoping to study overseas.

By partnering with Sunrise, institutions benefit from a variety of services that can help engage with Chinese students seeking undergraduate and graduate experience abroad. In addition to localized digital marketing (including a locally-hosted landing page or website and official WeChat account), we can also assist in the recruitment, hiring, and training of a dedicated in-country representative. Due to China’s travel restrictions, having a local representative is a valuable asset, as they can engage in domestic recruitment activities that are currently not accessible by international visitors.