With Donald Trump’s 2024 election win, emotions and tensions across the US are running high. A Trump win will prompt concern among US international admissions offices about the attractiveness of the US as a study destination, particularly for Chinese students. Should these concerns cause panic among international admissions offices about a sudden drop-off in Chinese students? We don’t think so. Here’s why:

International Students Aren’t Sensitive to Elections: In surveys, most international students say they are not concerned about US politics, and Chinese enrollments actually increased during the last Trump administration.
The Risks are “Baked In” Already: There are reasonable concerns about US-China diplomatic relations, possible changes in immigration policies, and a perception that the US is less welcoming of foreign students. But student visas do not feature prominently in Trump’s immigration platform, and the US is still the top study destination from China despite 8 years of diplomatic tension.
Push Factors and Forces that Moderate Extreme Policies: A weak job market at home and the stresses of the gaokao exam “push” Chinese students to study overseas. The US’s strong economy and holistic admissions approach remains deeply attractive. Meanwhile, some Trump policies may be more attractive to Chinese students. And domestic political limits and incentives are aligned against extreme actions by Trump against international students.
Universities Have Agency in Shaping Better Outcomes: Universities that adopt a long-term approach and continue their recruitment efforts in China will be better positioned to recruit Chinese students. Some universities will pull back from China and create a self-fulfilling prophecy of declining enrollments, while universities that stay the course through recruitment travel or digital advertising and localization will gain ground ceded by those who withdraw.

All Sentiments Aside: The Focus on China

If the international admissions community in the US was a state, it would be deep blue, and many share the belief that the stakes of the election were high for democratic norms, reproductive freedom, and the rights of minority communities. We understand that disillusionment, frustration, and fear may grip many in the profession.

It's important to remember that international educators have navigated a Trump administration before. Despite the political climate and our personal sentiments about the state of U.S. politics, international education and recruitment in China went on. Our perspectives may differ from those of the students we serve, and while we may harbor concerns about America's future, international students often have different priorities.

International Students Aren’t Sensitive to Elections

It's essential to level-set our understanding: most international students don't place U.S. politics at the forefront of their decision-making process, and Chinese students remained steady during the last Trump term. Chinese enrollments in the US in the 2019-2020 academic year were 6.2% higher than in 2016-2017 before Trump took office. During the pre-COVID Trump years, Chinese graduate enrollments increased by 6.8% and undergraduates increased by 3.7%. It is tempting to think of the 2019-2020 academic year as the “pre-COVID peak” of Chinese enrollments, but this peak also happened after 3 years of Trump in office.

According to a 2024 survey by IDP, only 35% of international students indicated that the U.S. election might influence their study decisions, ranging from slightly to significantly. In another survey, 43% of international students expressed that the U.S. president, current or future, does not influence their decision to pursue education in the United States at all. Only 16% were less likely to study in the US if Trump won, while 6.7% said they were less likely to choose the US if Harris won, meaning that a Trump win had a net negative impact of only 9.3%.

Past enrollment trends and survey data shows that elections are not decisive for most international students. This is understandable for Chinese students. The US is not their homeland, so the long-term stakes of the election aren’t as salient for them. And they do not feel the same exhaustion and investment in voting. After all, Chinese students cannot vote in US elections, and China does not have national elections.

Acknowledging the Risks

That said, we must acknowledge potential risks associated with a shifting political climate. There may be increased anxiety among international students about issues such as racism and gun violence. Instances of anti-Chinese racism could become more pronounced if individuals with extremist views feel emboldened, potentially creating a hostile environment. The elimination of DEI initiatives in schools might also send negative signals to prospective international students. And a chill in US-China diplomatic relations may portray the US as a hostile environment for Chinese students.

It is hard to quantify this climate shift, but this risk already seems “baked in” to Chinese enrollments in the US. Diplomatic relations with China have been frosty since 2017, and the old Trump tariffs remained through the Biden years. Expressions of anti-Chinese racism during the early days of COVID peaked but never disappeared, and racist public statements from major US politicians are not new. Gun violence is a scourge in the US, but the US already has 393 million guns in circulation and weak gun laws. A Trump administration may not do much to solve this problem, but Democratic presidents have struggled to solve it as well.

A central feature of Trump’s policy platform has been immigration. There may be an increase in visa rejections and more stringent background checks, particularly for graduate students in sensitive technology fields. The State Department may take longer to process visas if budgets are cut. And visa policies more broadly may be tightened. However, Trump’s immigration platform is focused elsewhere: on border security, the treatment of asylum claims, and the 11.7 million undocumented immigrants in the US. His campaign promises of mass deportations will be logistically complex, expensive, and costly in political capital as he must coordinate with foreign countries, federal agencies, and local governments. In his last term, Trump did not muster the resources to build a border wall, and a mass deportation effort would be far more taxing on his attention and resources.

This is not to say that Trump will have no impact on foreign students. Visa processing may be slower and background checks more thorough. And Chad Wolf, a former Trump DHS official, has advocated for changing F-1 visa durations from a “duration of status” to having fixed expiration dates. Still, these would not endanger the flow of international students from China.

Guardrails and Silver Linings

Despite the concerns about perceptions of the US, diplomatic relations, and visas, there are many guardrails against a major impact on Chinese student recruitment, and there are even some silver linings that may help US universities to recruit in China.

Silver Lining: Perceptions of Safety and Security

In the context of concerns over gun violence, Trump's pro-police stance and increased resources for local law enforcement may be viewed positively by some Chinese families. Safety is a critical factor for Chinese families in choosing a study destination, as reports on gun violence and crime in the US are common in Chinese media. Meanwhile, concerns about police abuses and civil liberties often voiced in the US are rare in Chinese media. In a peculiar way, a pro-police Trump administration may leave the perception that the US is a safer place to study than before, even if these perceptions are misguided.

Silver Lining: Trump is Deeply Transactional, Reducing Critical Risks

Trump’s approach tends to be transactional rather than ideological. His brand was built around deal-making. His campaign focused on putting “America First” and improving the US economy. His last administration saw meetings with Kim Jong-un and friendly exchanges with adversaries like Putin. To be sure, Trump's China policy is hawkish on trade and tariffs, and a renewed trade war will make diplomatic relations with China frostier than under Biden. On the other hand, Trump’s foreign policy worldview may make a “worst case scenario” of armed conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea less likely. Trump would be more inclined to negotiate for concessions from China at the expense of Taiwan or allies like the Philippines than expend blood and treasure over promises made by his predecessors. Trump will almost certainly worsen relations with China now, but he is less likely to engage in armed conflict based on principled beliefs in alliances or standing up for embattled democracies.

Trump’s transactional disposition also extends to domestic politics. While budget hawks might call on him to cut funding for universities, Trump has no principled opposition to debt and deficit spending. Universities are among the largest employers in many red states and districts. According to NAFSA, international students contributed nearly $40.1 billion to the economy, supporting 368,333 jobs. Red states gain $9.5 billion and 83,550 jobs from international students, and swing states gain a further $6.6 billion and 65,206 jobs. If education budget cuts endanger congressional support for his legislative priorities, he may insulate higher education from budget cuts. And in the end, Trump might see international students as a “win” because they pay more in tuition than domestic out-of-state students.

Guardrail: Push Factors from China Preserve Demand

One significant factor is the economic and social climate within China itself. Youth unemployment rates have reached record highs, with official figures from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showing rates exceeding 20% in recent years. The domestic job market is increasingly competitive. Job-seekers may want to get an edge with a foreign degree, or put off their entry into the job market by going to graduate school overseas. And China's high-stakes gaokao exam that governs admission to undergraduate programs in China is stressful and risky since China’s ultra-selective universities are well-regarded and funded, while middle-tier and regional universities have much less funding, fewer high-quality instructors, and weaker job placement prospects. Students “pushed” away from China for these reasons find US universities attractive, with test-optional and holistic admissions and a much wider choice of high-quality programs outside of the Ivy League.

Guardrail: Trump's Sweeping Agenda is Focused Elsewhere

Trump's agenda is primarily focused on domestic economic and cultural issues. He and Elon Musk have a sweeping vision for recasting the administrative state. His mass deportation policy would be a massive undertaking. These policy priorities have no direct bearing on international students. To the extent that Trump has an education agenda, it would be primarily cultural: supporting local strictures on K-12 curricula, policing gendered use of bathrooms, and allowing more religion in schools. While some of these issues may bleed into universities (eg. critical race theory courses or bathroom usage), states have more influence on these matters, and his focus on “parental rights” squares more directly with the K-12 space. And in foreign policy, Trump's immediate foreign policy attention may be directed elsewhere, such as reassessing and resolving the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Trump’s sweeping agenda will take time and resources to implement, and international education isn’t a policy priority.

Guardrail: The Donor Class and the Economy

Trump’s wealthy backers are generally supportive of OPT and H1B visas because they allow US companies to draw from the best talent in the world and fill skill gaps in the US workforce. Earlier in 2024, he said that he’d automatically give green cards to international graduates in the US, which was later walked back by the campaign and criticized by loyalists like Steve Bannon. Still, Trump campaigned on decreasing inflation, and removing skilled workers while the US unemployment rate is already low would create inflationary wage increases from companies trying to fill vacancies, or even perhaps tempting them to move skilled jobs overseas. And if unemployment increased and made OPT cuts tempting, there is a middle ground between OPT hawks and big business, such as requiring OPT workers to pay FICA taxes.

Guardrail: Other Anglophone Study Destinations Are Limiting International Students

If the US increased scrutiny on student visa applicants, it would join the club of other Anglophone destinations with new limits on international students. The UK has recently imposed restrictions on post-study work opportunities and dependent visas. Australia is debating a cap on international students, as its universities have much higher saturation of foreign students. Canada imposed a cap on international student visas in response to a housing shortage. Chinese students will consider the new administration as they choose where to study, but the grass is not necessarily greener in US rival destinations

What You Can Do

As international admissions officers, proactive engagement is crucial in navigating these changing dynamics.

Maintain a Strong Presence in China

Continuing to make long-term investments in recruitment efforts in China will position your institution favorably. Some universities will pause or pull back on China recruitment, which will open up new opportunities for universities that continue to travel to China. In China, relationships or guanxi matter, and meeting with families and partners lets you build trust with them and cut through the noise. Particularly in tier 2 and 3 cities in China, in-person visits are appreciated as these cities get fewer visits from AOs than before the pandemic, and continued visits demonstrate that your institution values Chinese students. Conversely, chasing the bandwagon of emerging markets and neglecting China signals that your office is a “fair weather friend” to your Chinese stakeholders.

Highlight Your Local Context

US national politics might look intimidating, but your state, city, and campus community may be very different. Rather than a defensive posture explaining away the election, highlight the politics and culture of your locality. Perhaps that’s a friendly governor, mayor, or university president. Or perhaps that’s a more intangible sense of friendliness and community in a rural college town. Chinese students understand the idea of local differences more than most. After all, China is vast and in some ways more diverse: it’s home to 300 languages and dialects other than Mandarin spoken as a first language by 436 million people.

Focus on the 2017-2019 Baseline

It's important to remember that the Trump administration is not synonymous with the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Reflecting on the 2017-2019 period rather than 2020 can provide a more accurate baseline for expectations: a plateau with minor fluctuations, rather than the COVID cliff drop-off.

Address Concerns Proactively

Develop clear communication strategies and prepare relevant statistics to address concerns about safety, racism, and policy changes to use at college fairs and in your Chinese-language messaging. And the best proof of your message is testimonial: Chinese students who speak on camera and offline about their positive experience at your school. Work proactively with ISSS teams to ensure that Chinese students on campus now feel welcomed and supported.

Self-Care and Professional Resilience

Lastly, it's essential to take care of yourselves amid these changes. The work you do is vital, and by focusing on what you can control, you can continue to support international students effectively. US-China diplomatic tensions may increase, but this only heightens the urgency of fostering deep people-to-people connections through education exchange. By doing our work, we help build a future that will look better than the present moment.

Confront the Uncertainty

It’s hard to predict the exact actions of a second Trump administration regarding Chinese students. Some possible Trump DHS Secretary candidates like Stephen Miller or Chad Wolf may be hawkish toward students and worsen the outlook, but DHS might be directed by former ICE or CBP leaders like Mark Morgan or Thomas Homan who have not spoken out against students. Regardless, Trump is erratic, and policies can have unintended consequences on foreign students. Acknowledging this uncertainty, universities must still make choices, and those should be informed by what students say in surveys, historical patterns from Trump’s first term, and political incentives. On balance, these suggest that a Trump administration will not be helpful for recruitment in China, but these do not justify panic.

Conclusion

While a Trump victory in 2024 introduces certain uncertainties, it’s important not to let the thick emotional fog of the election cloud the picture for key markets like China. International students are less sensitive to elections in the US, and Chinese students kept coming in Trump’s first term. Many of the concerns about Trump policies are already “baked in” to our current enrollment numbers. There are a few ways in which Trump may, perhaps inadvertently, help recruitment in China, and there are many more guardrails against big impacts on China recruitment. And ultimately, admissions offices have agency in how they invest in China to preserve student flows, how they communicate with prospective students, and how they best serve current Chinese students.

Next Steps

Schedule a meeting with Sunrise to discuss your institution's evolving China strategy. Sunrise specializes in offering custom approaches to help you successfully market and recruit. We look forward to helping you thrive in this new chapter ahead.

What Does a 2024 Trump Win Mean for International Student Recruitment in China?