In advance of the release of Sunrise’s Trends in Chinese International Education 2024 White Paper, Sunrise International hosted a webinar on Nov. 30 that previewed our white paper findings. The webinar titled The 6 Key Trends in China that will Shape Recruitment in 2024 was hosted in collaboration with our partners at China Higher Education (CHE). A short recap is below, but we encourage you to view the full webinar for even more graphics and analysis of 18 unique datasets.

Trend #1- China’s Economy: Growth, Property, & Employment

We’re hoping that GDP growth for 2024 holds at or above 4.6% and that property values either remain steady or increase slightly. Both of these would expand the ranks of those who can afford education abroad. In 2023, the economy partially recovered from a 2022 slump caused by COVID lockdowns and faltering property markets. Positive indicators would be economic stimulus measures, interest rate cuts, and policies to shore up property markets. Youth unemployment is at record highs at 21.3%. Paradoxically, rising youth unemployment may drive more interest in overseas graduate programs. A study by job platform Liepin found a 12.37% YoY increase in jobs favoring foreign degrees, and many Chinese students are looking for ways to stand out in a tough job market.

Trend #2- Study Destinations: How Many Students China is Sending, and Where They’re Choosing to Go

Study destinations are shifting. We tracked Chinese student mobility trends with year-to-date data from the US, Australia, Canada, and the UK. Enrollments were stable for the US. Enrollments are up for the UK, while enrollments for Canada saw a slight decline. Australia is on track to see an increase in students, since its student enrollments for Q1-Q3 of 2023 are almost at the same levels as all of 2022.

Visa issuance paints a positive sign for the 2023-2024 academic year. US visa issuance in Q2-Q3 of 2023 was up 50.49% compared to 2022. Canada saw a 14.78% increase, while the UK saw a 7.79% increase. This examination of visa issuance data for Australia is less predictive, since Australia doesn’t process the majority of its study visas in Q2 and Q3 like the other countries do.

A survey of 1,855 students attending Sunrise’s undergraduate recruitment tours showed that the effects of the pandemic on study overseas planning have subsided, with 75.27% saying they remained committed to study overseas, and another 15.76% saying that they planned to pivot from studying inside China to studying abroad, a welcome reversal from the mid-pandemic trend.

Trend #3- Family Perceptions: Views on Study Overseas and the Information Sources that Shape Them

Perceptions among families on study preferences and how students are finding out about universities continue to evolve. The November 2023 APEC summit saw welcome news for US-China relations. Official Chinese state media has taken a more positive tone toward the US, saying that “The Chinese people will never forget an old friend, and that’s an important message we want to send to the American people.” IIE and CEAIE announced plans to expand study exchanges, while Xi Jinping stated a goal to have 50,000 US students come to China in the next 4 years.

Meanwhile, students report that they’re relying more on online avenues to learn about study overseas, including Wechat, Weibo, and video platforms like Bilibili and Xiaohongshu.

Trend #4- International Schools: The Barometer of Interest in Undergraduate Study Overseas

21 new international schools opened in China, bringing the total to 970. Tier 2-3 cities saw the most growth. Grade 10 enrollments in Chinese high schools are up 50% among surveyed schools.

Trend #5- Chinese Agents: A Key Predictor of the Resilience of Study Overseas

China’s agency landscape is fragmented but expanding, with new agency establishment up 148% since 2021, as detailed in our recent piece. Some large legacy agents are flourishing, while others went bankrupt amid tighter regulation.

Trend #6- University Toolkits: How Universities Engage Evolving Recruitment Opportunities in China

The toolkits used by universities to engage in China after a full year of reopening needs to be updated. Reinvestment in recruitment travel and video-first digital marketing are key. The gold rush to chase other emerging markets ignores China’s irreplaceability as a source of fees-paying students, since China’s upper-middle class is 14x that of India’s. There is a need to balance priorities to give China the necessary resources. China has seen few university-based rep visits in the past 3 years, especially in tier 2+ cities. Meanwhile, digital marketing, particularly that uses video content is a worthwhile investment for universities moving forward.

Have questions or want to discuss these trends further? Get in touch with us at contact@sieconnection.com.

Webinar Recap: The 6 Key Trends in China that will Shape Recruitment in 2024